We’re playing Russian roulette. The revolver has six chambers, all empty. I put bullets in two adjacent chambers, spin the cylinder, hold the gun to my head, and pull the trigger. It clicks. Now it’s your turn. Before pulling the trigger, you can choose to spin the cylinder again or leave it as it is. Which is better?
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It’s better not to spin it. Two of the six chambers are loaded, so my chance of surviving was 4/6. But you know that the hammer fell on an empty chamber. Of the four empty chambers, only one is followed by a loaded one. So if you simply pull the trigger, you have a 3/4 chance of surviving. That’s better than 4/6, so you’re better off not spinning the cylinder.
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