In his 2008 book Impossible?, Julian Havil presents an argument offered in Massachusetts in 1854 contending that foreigners were more likely to be insane than native-born Americans. These figures were offered:
Whole Population | |||
Insane | Not Insane | Totals | |
Foreign-Born | 625 | 229375 | 230000 |
Native-Born | 2007 | 892669 | 894676 |
Totals | 2632 | 1122044 | 1124676 |
The probability that a foreign-born person was deemed insane was 625/230000 = 2.7 × 10-3, and for a native-born person the probability was 2007/894676 = 2.2 × 10-3, which seems to support the claim.
But we get a different story when we divide the data by social hierarchy, into what were called the pauper and independent classes:
Pauper Class | |||
Insane | Not Insane | Totals | |
Foreign-Born | 182 | 9090 | 9272 |
Native-Born | 250 | 12513 | 12763 |
Totals | 432 | 21603 | 22035 |
Independent Class | |||
Insane | Not Insane | Totals | |
Foreign-Born | 443 | 220285 | 220728 |
Native-Born | 1757 | 880156 | 881913 |
Totals | 2200 | 1100441 | 1102641 |
In the pauper class the probability of a foreign-born person being deemed insane is 182/9272 = 0.02, which is the same as that for a native-born person (250/12763 = 0.02). And the same is true in the independent class, where both probabilities are 2.0 × 10-3. Havil writes, “So, if an adjustment is made for the status of the individuals we see that there is no relationship at all between sanity and origin” (an example of Simpson’s paradox).